Worried about are reasons optimism.12/26/2023 ![]() ![]() Steptoe A, de Oliveira C, Demakakos P, Zaninotto P. Optimism and its impact on mental and physical well-being. doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.613448Ĭonversano C, Rotondo A, Lensi E, Della Vista O, Arpone F, Reda MA. Dispositional optimism protects older adults from stroke: The Health and Retirement Study. ![]() Optimism, cynical hostility, and incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Women's Health Initiative. Optimistic expectations have benefits for effort and emotion with little cost. Sleep quality: Being optimistic may improve your sleep quality, which is a key component in improving and maintaining your mental health.Īmerican Psychological Association.Relieved depression symptoms: Optimism is linked with lessening the symptoms of depression and even reducing suicidal ideation.Mental health benefits: People who are optimistic tend to experience less stress and feel a greater appreciation for other people.Longer lifespan: Research published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal found that optimists are less likely to experience disabilities as they get older and end up living longer than pessimists.Improved quality of life: One study found that people who were optimists and had positive expectations about the future experienced an improved quality of life when compared to people who had low levels of optimism and to pessimists.A University of Michigan study linked optimism to a lower risk of stroke. Decreased risk of illness: A study from the University of Pittsburgh concluded that women who had an optimistic outlook had a 30% lower risk of heart disease.Confidence: Optimism is linked with increased levels of confidence, especially when it comes to making decisions and feeling secure with the choices you make.Further, the S&P 500 could be poised to “fully recover last year’s plummet and begin extending the bull market that has been in place since March 2009,” he said.įor full details, read the reports from CIBC, RBC and BMO. In a weekly financial digest, BMO deputy chief economist Michael Gregory said the market plunge in December and bad winter weather have weighed on economic activity as businesses and consumers postponed purchases. Now that spring has sprung, a reversal could occur.įor example, December’s near-bear market “might go down in history as just a nasty correction-cue consumer and business confidence,” Gregory said. Upside surprise isn’t off the table, though. ![]() At this late stage of the cycle, growth is more likely to surprise to the downside, RBC said. Still, investors shouldn’t be dismissive of recession risk. “A 25-basis-point fed funds cut is expected by the end of this year (compared with two hikes previously priced in), while odds are tilted toward a BoC cut (three hikes expected as of last October),” the report said. Recent yield curve inversion instead reflects investor expectations for rate cuts by the central banks, the RBC report said. The federal funds rate is at the lower end of most neutral estimates, and the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is below the central bank’s assumed 2.5%-3.5% neutral range. or Canada, said a financial markets report from RBC. To that last point, past periods of yield curve inversion coincided with restrictive monetary policy, which doesn’t reflect the current situation in the U.S. With no recession built in to market expectations, escaping a recession won’t in itself be bullish for stocks, he added, especially since the bond market is pricing in some Fed rate cuts that would be of benefit to interest-rate sensitive equities.įinally, he said that odds of a recession (assuming those odds could be effectively calculated) are likely lower than they were a couple of months ago, because U.S.-China trade talks seem to be making progress and global central banks are becoming less hawkish. Taken as a whole, the measures indicate markets aren’t assuming a recession within the next half-year or so, Shenfeld said: “Equities have done too well, and corporate spreads are too narrow, to capture that sort of worry.” Treasuries), the six-month change in the S&P 500 and the 10-year corporate spread-all lagged six months. To do that, CIBC looked at three market measures that correlate with recessions: the yield curve (two-year and three-month U.S. Instead of looking for historical recessionary signs, Shenfeld suggests investors assess market expectations, which are a key starting point to know whether what’s priced in is “too optimistic or too gloomy, and if so, what asset classes might be too rich or cheap.” ![]()
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